2019年7月份重點:維持經濟活動包括就業市場、消費、企業投資以及通膨措辭:7月聲明稿維持6月份美國經濟活動溫和成長論述(rising at a moderate)、就業增長穩健(solid)、消費自年初回升(picked up)、企業投資持續疲弱(soft)以及通膨低於2%目標(running below)敘述,整體經濟前景看法變化不大。
通膨預期部分,市場通膨補償指標維持低檔
7月聲明稿稱通膨補償指標維持低位(remain low),並未如6月敘述持續下滑(have declined),透露短期通膨預期未再進一步下行。再度重申不確定性以及通膨壓力溫和風險,強調委員會將監控最新數據,並採取適當行動支持擴張。(原文: In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures...This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. )
(相關報導:美國聯準會主席暗示降息帶動美股飆漲 標普500指數首度衝破3千點|更多文章)
縮表部分,8/1起結束美債贖回(原定9月),並提早2個月重啟購債,MBS贖回超過200億/月部分將按SOMA持有流通在外美債期限再投資於美債。(原文:The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.)
降息投票以8:2通過,2位鷹派委員投票反對降息
本次下調聯邦基準利率1碼以8:2投票通過,其中極鷹派委員Rosengren、Esther George反對降息1碼,符合市場預期。(原文:Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.)
1) 提前於8/1結束美債到期贖回計畫,到期美債將全部進行再投資展期。(原文:Effective August 1, 2019, the Committee directs the Desk to roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities...)
(相關報導:美國聯準會主席暗示降息帶動美股飆漲 標普500指數首度衝破3千點|更多文章)
2) 提前於8/1執行MBS贖回再投資美債(限於200億/月以內),而再投資美債將與SOMA持有流通在外美債到期期限一致。(原文:...and to reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities received during each calendar month. Principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities up to $20 billion per month will be reinvested in Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding; principal payments in excess of $20 billion per month will continue to be reinvested in agency mortgage-backed securities.)
貨幣政策敘述: Powell稱目前貨幣政策自去年底緊縮,並到今年初暫停,最後再到現在的中期調整(mid-cycle adjustment)以支持經濟,而Powell認為此轉變已經降低短期借款成本,並對經濟帶來幫助。另外,也強調此次降息絕對有預防性的考量,稱不是開啟長期寬鬆的降息,但強調不是表示今年只降息1次。(原文:It’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts…I didn’t say it’s just one…)